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Search for phrase: "geographically weighted regression"

Robert Kudłak, Wojciech Kisiała, Jędrzej Gadziński, Wojciech Dyba, Bartłomiej Kołsut, Tadeusz Stryjakiewicz

Socio-economic and spatial determinants of the demand for new cars in Poland

The article seeks to identify socio-economic conditions that affect the demand of individual consumers for cars and to analyze spatial differences in these conditions. To achieve this objective, econometric modelling is conducted. The analysis was conducted in all poviats in Poland and covered the years 2010-2015. The findings show that the demand for new cars is stimulated by incomes of potential consumers and by a net in-migration, while the level of unemployment together with prices of complementary goods (especially petrol prices) negatively affect the demand for cars. Moreover, geographically weighted regression shows that the identified conditions differ across the country, which may explain the noticeable differences in the level of motorization between poviats.

Piotr Maleszyk

Educational Migration of Secondary School-leavers. The Example of Lublin

The article aims to present and assess educational migration as a driver of human capital redistribution across regions. The unique research on academic careers of 8.5 thousand secondary school-leavers in Lublin (Poland) allowed to gather microdata on the mobility of young people along with the school-leaving examination results being a proxy of human capital. The results indicate that the ratio of youth out-migration from their home region amounts to roughly 20%, which seems a low figure against comparative studies. However, the distribution of migration rate along with the logit regression proved high propensity of the most talented youth to move out. Hence, strong positive migration selectivity is regarded as an important driver of human capital redistribution across regions, which might negatively affect human capital accumulation in the sending area.

Paweł Kliber

The Diversity of Okun’s Coefficient in the Regions of Poland

In the paper, we calculate Okun’s coefficients in the regions of Poland. We compare the coefficients estimated for each region separately with the calculations obtained from seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) models. The results reveal that the latter method gives better estimates, because shocks in output are highly correlated across regions. Then, we consider the question concerning the existence of macroeconomic “clubs” among Polish regions. Two such clubs are found: the northwest of Poland and the eastern border region. Finally, some conclusions concerning economic policy preventing unemployment are drawn.

Oleksiy Gnatiuk, Serhii Puhach, Kostyantyn Mezentsev

The Socio-Economic Regionalisation and the Administrative Division of Ukraine Through the Lens of the Gravity Model

The paper explores the application of the gravity model, namely the delineation of the urban predominant influence areas via the generation of the multiplicatively weighted Voronoi diagram, to the socio-economic regionalisation and administrative territorial division of Ukraine, including the existing state of affairs and several proposals on their improvement. The research uses quantitative statistical data on interregional migration and rail passenger traffic within the country, processed via the Statistica analytics software, and a subsequent spatial analysis conducted by GIS. The findings suggest that the gravity model can serve as a tool for optimisation the administrative territorial division, as well as for the delineation of the planning regions and urban hinterlands. At the same time, it has certain limitations and should not be treated as a panacea for regional planning and development.

Beata Bieszk-Stolorz, Anna Gdakowicz, Iwona Markowicz

The odds of finding a job by the long-term unemployed

The aim of this article is to analyze the odds to find a job and the assessment of the duration of long-term unemployment. The data base is the 2007–2011 records from the Local Labour Office in Sulęcin. The authors of the article make the hypothesis that the impact of the determinants on the odds and rate of finding a job by the long-term unemployed is the same as in the case of the all the unemployed. The authors present a thesis that the determinants of long-term unemployment in the period of study are: the place of residence, age, the level of education, gender, seniority and the year of leaving the register. To analyze the data they use such nonlinear regression models as: the logistic model and the Cox hazard model. The former enables them to compare the odds to leave unemployment and the latter – to assess the time spent on finding employment. The designated odds ratios and hazard ratios are used to study the differences between subgroups of individual characteristics of the long-term unemployed as compared with all the unemployed.

Borce Trenovski, Gunter Merdzan, Filip Peovski

Municipal Revenue Determinants in the South-Eastern European Economy: Evidence from North Macedonia

Sustainability of municipal finance implies steady revenue generation. Pinpointing their determinants creates the necessary background in their management and policy creation. Great municipal dependence on central government finance remains a serious challenge in the process of fiscal decentralisation. So far, studies have been focusing on the expenditure side, while revenues were treated mostly marginally. A random-effects Generalized Least Squares (GLS) panel regression for the period of 2015–2019 is estimated for targeting revenue determinants of municipalities in North Macedonia. Own and total tax revenues are modelled separately through the impact of capital expenditures, salary expenditures, active transparency index, municipality type, and local government’s ideology. The general results indicate that capital expenditure, municipal transparency, and the level of development are significant determinants of municipal revenues in both estimated models. Using such knowledge on municipal revenue reactions can help governments formulate policies that provide sustainable and effective fiscal decentralisation, lowering the pressure on central governments in developing economies.

Mateusz Smolarski

Reactivation of Passenger Railway Lines in Poland in 2000–2020

The study discusses the processes of reactivation of passenger rail traffic in Poland in the years 2000–2020. After the reductions of the railroad network carried out before 2000, a renaissance of passenger transport could be observed. In the period under study, 63 sections of the railway lines were reconstructed. The total length of the reactivated routes was 1992 km, of which the electrified sections covered 549 km of the network. The largest areas of the concentration of reactivation activities were identified in south-eastern and northern Poland. The average speed on most routes was 65 km/h. The transport offer for 55% of the lines was based on more than six connections per day. Inconsistencies were also identified: out of 63 routes, passenger traffic was suspended again in 20 sections. Three types of reactivated routes can be identified, most of which are blindly terminated routes. The identified processes of reconstruction of traffic systems after 2000 represent yet another phase of railroad operations in Poland, after the previous phase of intensive regression and underfunding.

Kamil Maciuk, Paweł Biskup

Impact of tramline construction on real estate value

In the study, the impact of tramline construction on changes of apartment prices was investigated. The object of study was Podgórze, i.e. district XIII of Kraków, where a tramline towards Mały Płaszów was built in 2010. The authors used the base of transaction prices from 2008-2013 for apartments located within 500 m of the newly built tramline. Statistical analysis using the multiple regression model showed a 91% coefficient of price determination by the adopted attributes. It was shown that the „communication/transport” attribute explains 27.8% of property values, which gives the average real estate price increase by over PLN 600 per sq. m calculated per unit price after the construction of the new tramline.

Adam Gendźwiłł, Tomasz Żółtak, Jakub Rutkowski

Uncontested elections, missing candidates: Why do certain electoral committees refuse to nominate candidates for mayors?

The authors consider the problem of limited supply of candidates for mayors. Since 2002, most electoral committees in Polish municipalities have only participated in the elections for municipal councils and not for the principal executive office. Between 2002 and 2010, there was also a growing share of municipalities in which only one candidate ran. The logistic regression analysis demonstrates that the electoral committees’ decision whether or not to nominate a candidate is influenced by their size (popularity), as well as the size of the municipality. If there is a dominating committee and competing incumbents, it is less probable that another candidate would run. It is evident that the well-known effect of incumbency advantage works not only during the elections but also before them (when candidates are registered).

Paweł Swianiewicz, Anna Kurniewicz

The political cycle in tariffs on local public services in Poland

The concept of the political cycle was originally formulated with regard to decisions taken at the central level, but it may be also applied to the local level. Most of the previous empirical studies have focused on expenditure (how its size and structure change depending on the electoral cycle). The applicability of the concept to local tax policy has also been studied, although more rarely. In Polish studies of local public finance, the concept of political cycle has so far been rarely used. In this article, the authors check whether the theoretical frame of the political cycle is suitable for interpreting decisions relating to tariffs on local public services. It is empirically tested on tariffs on water and sewage, rents in municipal housing, tickets for local public transport and parking charges. The second research question concerns factors influencing the likelihood of the political cycle in different services. In this respect, the article puts forward four specific hypotheses. The authors have to face a methodological problem: the distinction between the influence of the electoral cycle and of other factors, such as inflation, or the change in the financial situation of local governments, and economic growth rate. The applied quantitative methods refer to panel logistic regression and linear regression models in which the impact of the electoral year is controlled by other variables.

Agata Brzóska, Paweł Swianiewicz

Demand elasticity of local public transport in Polish cities

Uptade from 2.03.2021: Parts of this article were subsequently used in the following publication: Swianiewicz, P., & Brzóska, A. (2020). Demand Elasticity for Local Public Transport in Polish Cities: Do Local Policies Matter?. Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences, 16(61), 125-142

After 1990, the number of local public transport passengers has been systematically decreasing at the expense of individual transport, which led to an increase in traffic congestion and deterioration of air quality in cities. However, for the last few years, a reversal of this trend has been observed in some cities. The article, using the data on the present number and recent changes in the number of passengers in nearly 100 Polish cities, discusses regression models to explain the factors influencing the diversity of demand for public transport services and its dynamics. The independent variables of the model refer both to the characteristics of cities (their socio-economic environment) and the organisation of services (e.g. organisational and legal forms of local transport companies, tariff policies, etc.). The results show that the density of the public transport network is the most significant factor explaining variation of the demand, while the level of ticket prices is almost insignificant. Demand in the largest cities has also recently been on the increase, but the relationship between the demand and the population size of the city is not a linear one.