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Search for phrase: "forecasting"

Spatial rent (annuity) makes it possible to estimate the economic value resulting from the use of space for a given type of activity. This article provides calculations of spatial rent in regard to offshore wind energy development and proposes a data-driven approach for optimizing spatial management strategies, ultimately contributing to more informed decision-making processes in marine spatial management. It analyses seven projects that could be developed in the Polish part of the Baltic Sea as part of Poland’s energy transition. The article employs a robust methodology that integrates technoeconomic analysis and financial forecasting to calculate spatial rent by discounting net cash flows. The calculations are carried out for two windiness scenarios, with the results of the weighted average annual energy production ranging from 38.02 GWh/km2 to 40.56 GWh/km2. Such energy production could yield an annual spatial rent of 10.72 million €/km2 to 13.30 million €/km2.

This article examines the influence of external factors on air passenger transportation, a key component of tourism. Factors such as military conflicts, epidemics and large-scale international events can both stimulate growth in passenger traffic and cause sharp declines. Methodologically, the study is based on the analysis of statistical data for 2012–2024 on the volume of passenger air transportation, with further spatial aggregation of data and the construction of trend models for 2022–2025 for airports in countries bordering Ukraine. The results indicate a transformation of air services associated with the displacement of logistical, evacuation, and migration routes. The forecast models suggest that high activity will persist at these regional airports in the short to medium term, even if the security situation partially stabilises. The study highlights both negative and positive changes in the spatial restructuring of aviation infrastructure in Central and Eastern Europe, with an emphasis on the role of peripheral airports under new conditions of population mobility.