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Search for phrase: "prognoza"
Mikołaj Herbst
The article offers a forecast of GDP per capita growth in Polish regions (NTS2) and subregions (NTS3) between 2006 and 2015, based on the past deviations of regional economies from the national growth path. The simulation shows that highest rates are expected in two metropolitan areas – Warsaw and Poznan. The Mazowieckie region (the one including Warsaw) will become the first to surpass the average level of GDP per capita in EU27. Although Poland will generally close the GDP gap to EU, further polarisation between regions is expected. The per capita income of the most lagging Polish regions will in 2015 reach (in real terms) the 2006 level of Polish national economy.
Przemysław Śleszyński
The paper includes the most important results of the project of the same title, carried out as part of a larger project “The Development Trends of the Mazovia Region”, implemented for the local government of the Mazowieckie voivodship in 2010?2012. It primarily concerned demographic and settlement issues related to the evolution of functional relations and linkages, spatial availability, as well as infrastructure and land use conditions. The main objective was to formulate the conditions which would ensure development, and to identify the factors and conditions that affected easy flow of development stimuli and better efficiency of the suburban zone and spatial cohesion of the Mazovia region. The horizon time of the project concerned the period after 1990 (diagnosis and retrospective study) and 2030 (forecast). The paper has a survey character, it reports on selected topics only, and its aim is to disseminate important research results.
Przemysław Śleszyński
The article deals with the analysis of the anticipated middle-term demand for dwellings in Poland. On the basis of the empirical research this demand has been considered as being determined by the two groups of factors: demographic and economic, together with the level of the state of fulfillment of the basic housing needs. The finale set consisted of eight factors of the diverse wage. These were: the percentage of deficient flats counted as the difference between the number of households and the number of flats, the average space floor per capita, the population growth in 1998-2002, the percentage of people in the age from 20 to 39, prognosis of the number of inhabitants in 2002-2010, the unemployment rate, average wages, and the number of the business entities per 1000 inhabitants. The analyze has been carried out in the commune-scale pattern and can be useful for spatial planners and persons professionally involved in the housing market.