The scale and structure of EU funds are one of the key determinants of Cohesion Policy impacts on socio-economic regional development, along with the magnitude of the Keynesian multiplier mechanism, spill-over elasticities, initial stocks of infrastructure, or human and physical capital. The aim of the paper is to analyze how changes in forecasts of Cohesion Policy public financial resources (available in NDPs & NSRFs) affect a counterfactual analysis of the Cohesion Policy impacts on the Polish NUTS-2 regional economies. On the basis of the financial data from the Polish Ministry of Infrastructure and Development which were made available in the years 2008?2013, simulations were carried out for the period 2004?2020 using 16 macroeconomic HERMIN models for the Polish regions. The results show that yearly forecast errors of the EU funds at the regional level account for up to 229%, and the forecast errors of allocations of the EU funds amount even to 32%. The inaccuracy of the forecasts of the EU payments and their volatility considerably distort the results of macroeconomic research of the Cohesion Policy impacts on development processes – even by 88% in the case of the yearly results, and by 49% in the case of cumulative results.
In the paper, we calculate Okun’s coefficients in the regions of Poland. We compare the coefficients estimated for each region separately with the calculations obtained from seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) models. The results reveal that the latter method gives better estimates, because shocks in output are highly correlated across regions. Then, we consider the question concerning the existence of macroeconomic “clubs” among Polish regions. Two such clubs are found: the northwest of Poland and the eastern border region. Finally, some conclusions concerning economic policy preventing unemployment are drawn.
The article describes the forecasts for the 2004-2006 National Development Plan implementation on the performance of Poland`s economy up to 2010. The estimations are based on the Polish version of HERMIN model. Several development paths for Poland are predicted upon varying assumptions on the ability to absorb the EU assistance, and varying efficiency of use of those funds. In general, it is demonstrated that Poland`s accession to EU will bring a significant economic improvement by increasing GDP growth rate and depressing unemployment rate.
In the last years, the knowledge economy approach has started to gain strength in the analysis of the economic and social reality. The author presents four fields that characterize the knowledge economy, namely: the acceleration of the knowledge production, intangible capital increase in the macroeconomic field, innovation as a dominant activity and revolution in the knowledge means. The main objective of this text is to find a relationship between two great phenomena knowledge economy and regional development landed on a concrete region (Central Region of Mexico). Essential to this analysis is the inclusion of the third great current phenomenon: globalization. Article presents also an overview of the conceptual framework of knowledge economy and its relationships with the Central Region of Mexico. The main hypothesis of this work consists of giving an answer for the question: Are there any possibilities for this region to join the knowledge-based economy, taking into consideration the existing elements of such an economy here? The last part of the article gives some data that describe the development level of the knowledge economy in the Central Region in three aspects: abilities, efforts and outcomes.
Neoclassical economists usually think of “microfoundations” before they come to macroeconomics. We claim exactly the opposite: every microeconomic theory should be grounded in a credible macroeconomic model. Such a model may be the classical paradigm and Kaleckian economics, which are fundamentally different from the neoclassical paradigm. Thus, we will prove the following thesis: political economy is better than the neoclassical theory at describing and explaining contemporary regional development processes. State policy has a fundamental role to play in shaping regional development, while local authorities may perform an auxiliary function.
The article presents the results of the analysis of the impact of the National Development Plan (NDP) 2004–2006 and the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) 2007–2013 on divergence/convergence processes taking place in Poland as well as between its regions and the EU average, measured as GDP per capita in PPS. The analysis was made using simulation results received by applying 16 regional HERMIN models and data as well as forecasts concerning NDP and NSRF transfers prepared by the Ministry of Regional Development of the Republic of Poland. The application of HERMIN models allowed the authors to make forecasts regarding the following macroeconomic indicators: GDP per capita (in PPS) in relation to the EU average and to the national average by 2020. The results indicate that NDP and NSRF implementation can accelerate the convergence process between the Polish regions and the EU average and slow down the weak divergence process within the country.
