The article describes the forecasts for the 2004-2006 National Development Plan implementation on the performance of Poland`s economy up to 2010. The estimations are based on the Polish version of HERMIN model. Several development paths for Poland are predicted upon varying assumptions on the ability to absorb the EU assistance, and varying efficiency of use of those funds. In general, it is demonstrated that Poland`s accession to EU will bring a significant economic improvement by increasing GDP growth rate and depressing unemployment rate.
Iwona Markowicz, Danuta Miłaszewicz, Ewa Putek
The scale and structure of EU funds are one of the key determinants of Cohesion Policy impacts on socio-economic regional development, along with the magnitude of the Keynesian multiplier mechanism, spill-over elasticities, initial stocks of infrastructure, or human and physical capital. The aim of the paper is to analyze how changes in forecasts of Cohesion Policy public financial resources (available in NDPs & NSRFs) affect a counterfactual analysis of the Cohesion Policy impacts on the Polish NUTS-2 regional economies. On the basis of the financial data from the Polish Ministry of Infrastructure and Development which were made available in the years 2008?2013, simulations were carried out for the period 2004?2020 using 16 macroeconomic HERMIN models for the Polish regions. The results show that yearly forecast errors of the EU funds at the regional level account for up to 229%, and the forecast errors of allocations of the EU funds amount even to 32%. The inaccuracy of the forecasts of the EU payments and their volatility considerably distort the results of macroeconomic research of the Cohesion Policy impacts on development processes – even by 88% in the case of the yearly results, and by 49% in the case of cumulative results.
The article presents the results of the analysis of the impact of the National Development Plan (NDP) 2004–2006 and the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) 2007–2013 on divergence/convergence processes taking place in Poland as well as between its regions and the EU average, measured as GDP per capita in PPS. The analysis was made using simulation results received by applying 16 regional HERMIN models and data as well as forecasts concerning NDP and NSRF transfers prepared by the Ministry of Regional Development of the Republic of Poland. The application of HERMIN models allowed the authors to make forecasts regarding the following macroeconomic indicators: GDP per capita (in PPS) in relation to the EU average and to the national average by 2020. The results indicate that NDP and NSRF implementation can accelerate the convergence process between the Polish regions and the EU average and slow down the weak divergence process within the country.
The aim of the article was to present the methods of operationalisation and measurement of intellectual capital of the region. The methods of fuzzy sets and structural equation modelling were used. The obtained results were the following: (1) the verification of the conceptual model of intellectual capital of the region and (2) measurement of intellectual capital of region.
The article seeks to identify socio-economic conditions that affect the demand of individual consumers for cars and to analyze spatial differences in these conditions. To achieve this objective, econometric modelling is conducted. The analysis was conducted in all poviats in Poland and covered the years 2010-2015. The findings show that the demand for new cars is stimulated by incomes of potential consumers and by a net in-migration, while the level of unemployment together with prices of complementary goods (especially petrol prices) negatively affect the demand for cars. Moreover, geographically weighted regression shows that the identified conditions differ across the country, which may explain the noticeable differences in the level of motorization between poviats.
