The aim of this paper is to evaluate the symmetry of demand and supply shocks affecting Polish voivodeships and to assess the risk of asymmetric shocks in the future. The study employs the SVAR-based Blanchard and Quah (1989) decomposition as modified by Bayoumi and Eichengreen (1992), and uses a new method of estimating quarterly GDP by voivodeships. The results point to a relatively high symmetry of shocks and a rather low risk of their occurrence. Shock asymmetry does not appear to be strongly related to differences in production structures, which is claimed in most theoretical approaches, including the Optimum Currency Areas Theory.
A measure of economic development for regions is proposed in the form of a multicomponent index. This measure is composed of the following aspects: technology, infrastructure, human capital and social capital and defied by an array of indicators. Such a measure has significant advantages over the most commonly used indicator of GDP per capita. The statistical data based on which it is built are freely available and with a much shorter time lag than GDP at the regional level. This indicator makes it possible to depict economic factors behind long-run economic growth as well as to include less measurable factors such as social change, environmental degradation, etc. On the one hand, the proposed indicator comprises symptoms of the quality of life, and on the other hand, it includes factors which are essential for long-run economic growth and productivity. The authors show usefulness of such an indicator for policy formulation, which is rarely pointed out in the case of other indexes and is especially important at a time when long-run economic growth, and also development, in high-developed countries is endangered. The authors also discuss some general aspects of constructing indexes of economic development for regions, e.g., the often omitted problem of inclusion of cyclical indicators in the indexes of development. Empirical analysis of the proposed indicator is made for the NUTS-2 regions of Poland for the years 2009–2011.
The purpose of this article is to establish whether regional convergence is present in Poland in terms of GDP per capita. An analysis was conducted for the years 1995–2005 at the voivodeship (NUTS2), sub-regional (NUTS3 classification) and intra-voivodeship levels. Convergence means a reduction of income disparities between regions. The opposite phenomenon is called divergence. The author of the paper used a method – proposed by Quah (1993, 1996a, 1996b) – that enables an analysis of the full distribution dynamics of relative per capita income. It consists in the estimation of transition matrices derived from Markov’s processes and in the use of nonparametric kernel estimators of the relative density function for relative GDP distribution per capita in subsequent years. The method facilitates verification of the club convergence hypothesis, which is impossible using the classic methodology (Barro and Sala-i-Martin 2003). It is clear that income distribution is stable and that there is no unconditional convergence both between voivodeships and between sub-regions. In general, voivodeships as well as sub-regions were impoverished as a result of a faster-than-normal growth of the richest voivodeships (mazowieckie voivodeship) and sub-regions (large cities, mainly Warsaw and Poznan). The diversification of relative GDP per capita grows in time both in the case of voivodeships and sub-regions. The convergence model that can be seen both at NUTS2 and NUTS3 levels is club convergence (polarisation): relatively the poorest and – separately – the richest regions are becoming similar and converge at different income levels. The analysis also includes the occurrence of sub-region convergence within voivodeships, with the only observable convergence model being club convergence.
European regional support has grown in parallel with European integration. The funds targeted at achieving greater economic and social cohesion and reducing disparities within the EU have more than doubled in relative terms since the end of the 1980. making development policies the second most important policy area in the EU. The majority of the development funds have been earmarked for Objective 1 regions, i.e. regions where GDP per capita is below the 75% of the EU average. However, the European development policies have come under increasing criticism based on two facts: the lack of upward mobility of assisted regions and the absence of regional convergence. This paper assesses, using cross-sectional and panel data analyses, the failure so far of European development policies to fulfil their objective of delivering greater economic and social cohesion by examining how European Structural Fund support is allocated among different development axes in Objective 1 regions. We find that, despite the concentration of development funds on infrastructure and, in less extent on business support, the returns to commitments of these axes are not significant. Support to agriculture has short term positive effects on growth, but these wane quickly, and only investment in education and human capital which only represents about one-eight of the total commitments has medium-term positive and significant returns.
The article presents the results of the analysis of the impact of the National Development Plan (NDP) 2004–2006 and the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) 2007–2013 on divergence/convergence processes taking place in Poland as well as between its regions and the EU average, measured as GDP per capita in PPS. The analysis was made using simulation results received by applying 16 regional HERMIN models and data as well as forecasts concerning NDP and NSRF transfers prepared by the Ministry of Regional Development of the Republic of Poland. The application of HERMIN models allowed the authors to make forecasts regarding the following macroeconomic indicators: GDP per capita (in PPS) in relation to the EU average and to the national average by 2020. The results indicate that NDP and NSRF implementation can accelerate the convergence process between the Polish regions and the EU average and slow down the weak divergence process within the country.
An Economic and Monetary Union is the next stage of European integration. The membership in the euro zone should result in strengthening the safety and stability of the national economy. Therefore, the new member countries ought to aspire to accession, meeting in advance the Maastricht convergence criteria. The paper presents the assessment of the nominal convergence of new EU members (general government deficit and general public debt related to GDP, annual average inflation rates, long-term interest rates) in 2004–2009.
Accessibility indicators can be defined to reflect both within-region transport infrastructure and infrastructure outside the region which affect the region (interregional infrastructure). The new geography models show that increase of accessibility may have no positive impact on poor regions development. The only regions on which it may have an effect are those which are rich or those situated on transport corridors. In countries like Poland transport infrastructure might be effective. However the main result of SASI model and IASON project is that socio-economic trends such as ageing of the population and increases of labour productivity have much stronger impact on cohesion indicators (GDP or employment) than regional transport accessibility.
Convergence is one of the key issues of cohesion policy. The European Union applies different instruments of regional development to reduce disparities between regions and countries. Due to the discussion on the effectiveness of this policy, a research in this area seems to be required. The purpose of this article is to assess the diversity of wealth in the regions using the methods of measurement of sigma convergence. The main parameter used in the calculations is GDP per capita in 2000–2007 at the sub-regional level (NUTS-3). The research shows that income inequalities among some groups of Polish regions have increased after the accession to the EU. Convergence patterns vary in cities, rich sub-regions and poor sub-regions. In some cases, convergence is correlated with the dynamics of GDP, whereas in other there is no significant relationship between convergence and the economic situation.
The article offers a forecast of GDP per capita growth in Polish regions (NTS2) and subregions (NTS3) between 2006 and 2015, based on the past deviations of regional economies from the national growth path. The simulation shows that highest rates are expected in two metropolitan areas – Warsaw and Poznan. The Mazowieckie region (the one including Warsaw) will become the first to surpass the average level of GDP per capita in EU27. Although Poland will generally close the GDP gap to EU, further polarisation between regions is expected. The per capita income of the most lagging Polish regions will in 2015 reach (in real terms) the 2006 level of Polish national economy.
The aim of this study was a synthetic evaluation of EU funds’ distribution between 16 voivodships. It was found out that the regional EU funds’ distribution in the years 2000–2005 is an effect of a method, according to which the voivodships that more populated are privileged. In absolute numbers the biggest recipients were: Masovia, Silesia and Malopolska – regions with a high level of urbanization, equipped with a broad business environment and with a relatively rich scientific background. At the same time, these voivodships win the most direct foreign investments. Thus we deal with a double privilege of these voivodships in relation to other regions. In relative numbers, described by an index of received funds in relation to the share of produced GPD, the dominating regions are: Warmia and Mazury, Podlasie and Western Pomerania. But it does not mean that in this way the distance between these voivodships and the most developed regions is reduced. The research did not prove that there is a connection between GDP per capita and the amount of aid per one inhabitant. The lack of any connection (positive or negative), which is a logic effect of the assumption that the regional distribution of EU funds is conditioned mainly by the number of inhabitants, indicates that the criteria do not differentiate voivodships according to the anticipated economic effects. They take an egalitarian approach – every inhabitant should receive statistically equally.
The article describes the forecasts for the 2004-2006 National Development Plan implementation on the performance of Poland`s economy up to 2010. The estimations are based on the Polish version of HERMIN model. Several development paths for Poland are predicted upon varying assumptions on the ability to absorb the EU assistance, and varying efficiency of use of those funds. In general, it is demonstrated that Poland`s accession to EU will bring a significant economic improvement by increasing GDP growth rate and depressing unemployment rate.
Local governments in the Western Balkan countries are dependent on central governments’ transfers, with low fiscal autonomy and limited efforts for own-source revenue mobilisation. The paper identifies that besides central government transfers, other significant factors in determining municipal own-source revenues include central and local public investment, current expenditures, human development index, and population density. Municipal own-source revenue is adversely affected by intergovernmental transfers, implying their de-incentivising effect in collecting local revenues. Local capital expenditure is a significant and strong determinant with a higher strength than central government investments, suggesting their importance for local fiscal autonomy. The human development index as a composite measure, unlike GDP per capita, positively affects the municipal fiscal autonomy.
The main objective of this paper is to discover the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and regulatory conditions of doing business on economic growth of different economies, particularly in terms of the combined co-effect of the two mentioned factors. An econometric cluster model using the k-means method is developed. 172 economies were distributed between clusters based on three parameters: 1) rates of GDP growth for individual economies in 2020, as provided by the World Bank; 2) the World Bank Doing Business rating for 2020; and 3) the COVID-19 pandemic factor that is represented by the total accumulated number of cases officially fixed per 100,000 of population, as provided by the World Health Organization. The study proves that the COVID-19 pandemic appeared to be a substantial factor of economic growth for the vast majority of economies, which is reflected by the drop in their GDP even despite favourable conditions of doing business in some countries. Substantial compensating reciprocal influences are observed between the set of doing business factors and the COVID-19 pandemic factor.
The article focuses on identifying the specifics of the relationship between human capital and the quality of economic development across regions and the world as a whole. The Human Capital Index (HCI) was used as an indicator of human capital development. GDP per capita as an objective indicator and the Happiness Rating as a subjective indicator were used to display the quality of economic development. The panel sample includes data for 140 countries for 2020. The study showed that there are significant regional differences both in the values of the analysed indicators and in their distribution among the groups. The research also revealed that the relationship between the indicators ranged from a strong positive in some cases to a negative or no correlation in others. It was concluded that there are inter-regional differences in human capital development.
